5/12/17 – Stocks Down, Retail Hit Hard

Stocks Decline Slightly, Retail Punished

After three positive weeks, stocks retreated in the second week of May. Retail earnings dominated the financial headlines and most of those disappointed investors. For the week, the Dow and S&P 500 decreased 0.5% and 0.3%, respectively.

Retail Demise – Most of the major department stores reported earnings this week and the stocks sold of sharply as a result. Even in an environment where people are pretty negative on brick and mortar retail, the results pushed names like Nordstrom, Kohl’s and Macy’s down approximately 20% this week. This downward move is huge considering we weren’t talking about the holiday shopping season. Declining same-store sales seemed to be the major concern. Many retailers have too many stores and most haven’t yet figured out how to effectively run their online sales. While online sales don’t have the costs of a physical store, the fulfillment cost is very high on a per-order basis. Instead of shipping large crates to individual stores, they must ship thousands of individual orders. Traditional retail needs to figure out how to effectively and profitably make the transition. We will continue to see a large shift in the retail sector over the coming years as stores close and online shopping continues to grow. Read More

French Elections – Emmanuel Macron won the French Presidential election on Sunday as expected. Markets initially reacted positively, but quickly moderated as the result was essentially priced-in over the prior two weeks. It will interesting to see how Macron will govern. Given that he started a new political party, he doesn’t have a built-in coalition. He says he will have candidates in Parliamentary elections next months, but it’s unclear how many will be elected. Either way, he will need to quickly build a governing coalition to start implementing his policy ideas. Read More

Ransomware Hack – Late Friday news broke of a large-scale ransomware attack affecting hospitals in the UK and companies around the world, including FedEx. A ransomware attack shuts down a computer network then attempts to get a ransom payment to ‘unlock’ the system. It’s a high-tech form of piracy. This is a growing problem and one companies will have to be vigilant in protecting themselves from going forward. Read More

Oil rebounded this week, increasing 3.4% to close at $47.89/barrel. The yield on the 10-yr Treasury decreased, closing at 2.33% from 2.35% a week ago. The average rate on a 30-yr fixed rate mortgage ticked higher to 4.05% from 4.02% last week.

Close Weekly YTD
Dow Jones 20,896.61 (0.5%) 5.7%
S&P 500 2,390.90 (0.3%) 6.8%
Oil 47.89 3.4% (11.1%)
10-yr Treasury (∆ in bps) 2.33 (2) (12)

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5/5/17 – Stocks Up Again On Jobs Report

Stocks Rise is Busy News Week

Stocks continued on an upward trajectory this week amid strong earnings, the Federal Reserve holding interest rates steady, a good jobs report today and the expectation that Emmanuel Macron will win the French election on Sunday. For the week, the Dow increased 0.3% while the S&P 500 added 0.6%. The Dow closed above 21,000 for the first time since March 3rd and only the 4th time ever.

April Jobs Report – There was a lot of focus on today’s jobs report after the March report disappointed investors. The US economy added 211k net new jobs in April and the unemployment rate declined to 4.4%. Through the first four months of the year, we’ve averaged 185k new jobs a month, essentially identical to the 183k average in the first four months of last year. This reports follows last week’s disappointing US economic growth and suggests the economy is stronger than some had feared. Read More

French Elections – In the latest polls, Emmanuel Macron holds a 20+ point lead over Marine Le Pen. Most business leaders favor Macron because he has supported reducing labor laws and remaining in the EU. The election takes place on Sunday and the market is fully expecting a Macron victory, so a Le Pen shock would like cause volatility next week. However, it seems the populist wave hitting many parts of the West won’t continue in France this weekend.

Federal Reserve – The Federal Reserve voted this week to keep interest rates unchanged while saying conditions remain positive for future rate increases. I think we’ll see two additional rate increases this year which will be a good development for savers. We could all benefit from higher interest rates in savings accounts and other fixed income investments. Any slowdown in the economy could delay rate increases, but at this point we are tracking in a good direction for higher rates. The Fed meets again in June and I expect we’ll see a 0.25% increase in the Fed Funds rate.  Read More

Oil moved sharply lower, decreasing 5.9% to close at $46.30/barrel. The OPEC production cuts expires later this month and OPEC is meeting on May 25th to discuss whether to continue, increase or end the production caps. The yield on the 10-yr Treasury increased, closing at 2.35% from 2.28% a week ago. The average rate on a 30-yr fixed rate mortgage ticked lower to 4.02% from 4.03% last week.

Close Weekly YTD
Dow Jones 21,006.94 0.3% 6.3%
S&P 500 2,399.29 0.6% 7.2%
Oil 46.30 (5.9%) (14.1%)
10-yr Treasury (∆ in bps) 2.35 7 (10)

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4/28/17 – Great Week for Stock After French Elections

French Elections Drive Best Week of 2017

Stocks posted their strongest two-day stretch since the election on Monday and Tuesday following French elections that will now pit Marine Le Pen against Emmanuel Macron. Even with today’s report of somewhat disappointing US GDP growth in the first quarter, stocks finished their best week of the year. The Dow gain 1.9% while the S&P 500 was up 1.5%.

French Elections – Markets loved the outcome of the first round of the French election. Heading into the first round, Emmanuel Macron had the largest lead over Le Pen in a hypothetical final round vote. Macron is a former socialist who started a new centrist party and most believe he will easily win the election on May 7th. That said, many said the same thing about Brexit failing and Hillary Clinton winning. A Macron victory essentially ensures France won’t attempt to leave the EU or the Euro currency. Whether this is the best long-term decision for France is unclear, but in the short-term financial markets prefer consistency and the status quo. I’ve long argued that the Euro’s days are numbered and the weaker countries should look to leave. Countries like Greece and Italy cannot effectively compete with Germany and other northern European countries, yet they never benefit from a weaker currency. At some point, more countries will decide they would be better served with a single currency, but the French elections likely push that time further into the future. Read More

US GDP Growth – Expectations for Q1 economic growth have been coming down for weeks. The first quarter is often seasonally weak, but today’s report showed the worst Q1 growth in three years. The US economy grew at an anemic 0.7% annualized rate in the first three months of 2017. More concerning was the weakness was driven my lackluster consumer spending. Consumers account for roughly two-thirds of the US economy, so any prolonged weakness in consumer activity threatens economic growth. The first quarter has been weaker than average over the last 5-6 years, so it’s hard to read too much into one report. We’ve averaged less than 2% annualized economic growth in the last 16 years, but markets have eagerly anticipated higher future growth. This report, while just one report, calls that belief into question. Read More

Oil moved lower, decreasing 0.7% to close at 49.21/barrel. The yield on the 10-yr Treasury was increased slight, closing at 2.28% from 2.24% a week ago. The average rate on a 30-yr fixed rate mortgage bounced higher to 4.03% from 3.97% last week.

Close Weekly YTD
Dow Jones 20,940.51 1.9% 6.0%
S&P 500 2,384.20 1.5% 6.5%
Oil 49.21 (0.7%) (8.7%)
10-yr Treasury (∆ in bps) 2.28 4 (17)

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4/21/17 – Stocks Rise As Earnings Kick-Off

Stocks Rise in Choppy Week

Stocks declined three of the five days this week, but managed to finished positive on the back of a strong Monday and Thursday. For the week the Dow and S&P 500 increased 0.5% and 0.8%, respectively.

Corporate Earnings – This was the first full week of earnings and results were mixed with companies such as Honeywell and Black & Decker exceeding expectations while Verizon, Goldman Sachs, IBM and others disappointed. Financial earnings had been pretty strong before Goldman earlier in the week, which seemed to spook investors. I was less concerned since Goldman’s trading business, a very volatile business, was responsible for much of the miss. Markets as a whole took it as a opportunity to pause and consider future economic growth. The rest of week didn’t provide much clarity as several key bellwether names reported conflicting results. Were Verizon and IBM’s results company specific or is it a message that growth isn’t as strong as people have projected? Did Honeywell’s earnings provide a positive insight into the industrial and defense markets? I think it’s too early to read too much into a handful of earnings estimates. There is always quarter-to-quarter volatility among companies, even the best companies, and it will be important to see what type of reports we see in the next 2-3 weeks.

French Elections – The first round of France’s Presidential election take place this weekend, amidst the backdrop of another terrorist attack. Marine Le Pen is the far right nationalist candidate in favor of France leaving the Euro currency. She was polling in 2nd place before the attacks, at 22%. The French elections are a two-stage process where the top two vote recipients advance to a run-off a few weeks later. The terror attack last night will presumably help Le Pen, who most expected would advance to the second round either way. What investors will be watching is how votes consolidate in the second step. For months, pundits have been saying Le Pen has no chance in the second step, but many said the same thing about Brexit and Donald Trump. A surprise Le Pen election could further weaken and endanger the European Union, the Euro currency and increase market volatility. I think the Euro currency is ultimately doomed either way. There is too much variability in the fiscal condition of each member country to make a single currency work long-term. A Le Pen victory would hasten the breakdown of the Euro and cause some short-term volatility, but I don’t view a potential Le Pen election as a long-term negative to the European economy.

Oil moved sharply lower, decreasing 6.4% to close at 49.54/barrel. The yield on the 10-yr Treasury was essentially flat, remaining at 2.24%. The average rate on a 30-yr fixed rate mortgage continued lower to 3.97% from 4.08% last week. This is the first time since November average mortgage rates have dipped below 4.0%.

Close Weekly YTD
Dow Jones 20,547.76 0.5% 4.0%
S&P 500 2,348.69 0.8% 4.9%
Oil 49.54 (6.4%) (8.1%)
10-yr Treasury (∆ in bps) 2.24 1 (21)

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4/13/17 – Stocks Fall on Heightened Geopolitical Risks

Stocks Fall Amid Geopolitical Concerns

  • Geopolitical risk catches up with markets this week
  • What is the 10-year Treasury telling us about growth?
  • Banks kick off earnings season in a strong fashion

Stocks suffer their second worst week of the year and have now been down in four of the last six weeks. Most of the week’s losses occurred today, with losses accelerating after the news of the MOAB bomb drop in Afghanistan. For the week, the Dow declined 1.0% while the S&P 500 declined 1.1%. Stocks are closed tomorrow for Good Friday.

Geopolitical tensions are increasing as the US is sending a naval strike group to the Korean peninsula while China is amassing troops on the North Korean border. Additionally, the US dropped the largest non-nuclear bomb in the Air Force’s arsenal in eastern Afghanistan today. Many are viewing the Afghanistan bomb as a message to North Korea and potentially Iran. It’s unclear where either of these situations, plus Syria, will go, but clearly geopolitical risk is on the rise.

The 10-year Treasury bond is an important bond in the financial markets and its recent moves raise some interesting questions. A month ago, the yield on the 10-yr was around 2.6%. Today the yield was down to 2.24%. This is a pretty large move in one month, especially since the Fed is increasing the Fed Funds rate. So, why is the yield on the 10-year decreasing? Many theories exist, but it makes me think the bond market isn’t buying into the economic growth story. Economic growth averaged 1.7% annually during the Obama administration and the Trump administration has stated its goal of returning growth to 3%+, inline with the post-World War II average. Investors went along with this forecast on the potential to repeal parts of Dodd-Frank and reduce corporate taxes. Those plans seem to either be waning or taking longer than expected and raise questions about future growth. This could easily be a short-term blip in the markets, but I think it’s an important trend to follow. The 10-yr Treasury shouldn’t be trading at 2.24% in a world of 3% economic growth.

Corporate earnings season started today with Wells Fargo, JP Morgan and Citibank releasing first quarter earnings. All three reported strong earnings and will hopefully serve as a precursor to a strong earnings season overall. The stock market has had a good run the last few months and part of that was based on positive earnings expectations. The next few weeks will tell us whether the optimism was warranted.

Oil moved higher, increasing 1.3% to close at 52.91/barrel. The yield on the 10-yr Treasury moved sharply lower to 2.24% from 2.38% a week ago. The average rate on a 30-yr fixed rate mortgage continued lower to 4.08% from 4.10% last week.

I hope you all have a Happy Easter weekend.

Close Weekly YTD
Dow Jones 20,453.25 (1.0%) 3.5%
S&P 500 2,328.95 (1.2%) 4.0%
Oil 52.91 1.3% (1.8%)
10-yr Treasury (∆ in bps) 2.25 (15) (21)

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4/7/17 – Stocks Calm in Busy Geopolitical Week

  • Stocks essentially flat in a busy week for news
  • March jobs report disappoints
  • US launches targeted strike in Syria
  • Trump meets with Chinese leader Xi

There was a lot of geopolitical news this week coupled with important jobs data. With all the news though, stocks were very calm this week. On the week, the Dow was essentially unchanged while the S&P 500 declined 0.3%.

The March jobs report came in well below estimates, but it didn’t seem to impact markets today. The economy added only 98k net new jobs in the month. This was well below consensus estimates of 180k. Additionally, figures for January and February were revised lower by a combined 38k jobs. Total job creation in the first quarter was 533k, or a reasonably attractive 178k per month, essentially the same as the 176k monthly average in 2016. Wage growth was a bright spot in the report though, increasing at a 2.7% annualized rate. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.5%. The market had a very muted reaction to this report for a couple reasons I think. First, these monthly reports are notoriously volatile. Second, last month was strong amidst a very warm month in many parts of the country. March, however, dealt with a large snowstorm through the entire Northeast that likely hurt construction employment in the month. Finally, we’ve had these weak months periodically in the last few years, but they have always been blips. In May 2016, the economy added only 24k jobs, but rebounded to a strong 271k in June. At this point, people are comfortable chalking this up as an anomaly not the start of a trend. Read More

Lots of geopolitical news this week. North Korea launched another ballistic missile into the Sea of Japan. The launch occurred before the meeting between Trump and Chinese leader Xi where North Korea was expected to be a major topic of discussion. Additionally, the US launched 59 cruise missiles into Syria destroying an air base and some Syrian air force planes over night. The strike was in response to a chemical weapons attack believed to be coordinated by the Assad regime. It’s unclear where this goes from here. Russia, who has backed Assad, has been pretty moderated in its response, even saying its support of Assad isn’t unconditional. Neither event seemed to concern investors. Markets were down early today, but quickly rebounded and some of the negativity could have come from the headline jobs figure. Defense stocks actually did well today, with Raytheon and Lockheed Martin both up over 1%. Read More

President Trump met with Chinese Leader Xi Jinping this afternoon. As of yet, they have not issued a joint statement. Trade and North Korea were expected to be important topics of discussion. Many have speculated the Syria strike was timed to make clear to Xi that the US would be willing to act alone against North Korea if China is unable, or unhelpful in reigning in Kim Jung Un. There’s been few little details about the substance of the meeting release yet, but markets will be looking for details on the trade portions of the discussion. While Trump has continued to talk tough on trade, his actions have been more measured. Hopefully that trend continues because we benefit greatly as a nation from trade with China.

Oil increased 3.0% this week, closing at $52.23/barrel. The yield on the 10-yr Treasury decreased slightly, closing at 2.38%, from 2.40% a week ago. The average rate on a 30-yr mortgage declined again, moving to 4.10% from 4.14% last week.

Close Weekly YTD
Dow Jones 20,656.10 (0.0%) 4.5%
S&P 500 2,355.54 (0.3%) 5.2%
Oil 52.23 3.0% (3.1%)
10-yr Treasury (∆ in bps) 2.38 (1) (6)

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3/31/17 – Stocks Increase, Brexit Moves Forward, Retail Under Pressure

Stocks Finish 1st Quarter on Positive Note, Brexit Formally Initiated

  • Stocks rebound in the final week of March
  • UK formally initiates process to leave the EU
  • Retail bankruptcies pile up

Stocks finished the last week of March on a positive note. The Dow gained 0.3% while the S&P 500 added 0.8%. For the quarter the Dow and S&P 500 increased 4.6% and 5.5%, respectively. The first quarter was the sixth straight quarter where the indices increased.

Earlier this week, the UK officially started the process of leaving the European Union by invoking article 50 and formally filing its ‘intention to leave’ letter to the European Council. The two sides now have two years to negotiate the terms of the departure. The goal of the negotiation is to determine any departure tax the UK might have to pay as well as sign trade, work and travel agreements between the UK and the rest of the EU. Trade between the UK and the EU is important to both economies, so it seems to me the sides should be able to work out an agreement. Switzerland and Norway are notable examples of non-EU countries that have effectively negotiated trade and other deals with the EU. Those deals seems like a great starting point. While many EU officials are likely still upset about Brexit, economic self-interest should encourage a relatively seamless process. No one wins from an ugly process that hurts trade for everyone. Read More

The retail sector continues to struggle. As online shopping grows, regular brick & mortar businesses are closing stores and in some cases filing for bankruptcy. Macy’s, Sears and others have announced large numbers of store closings. Specialty retail stores like Gander Mountain, Wet Seal and BCBG have filed for bankruptcy protection this year. In the first quarter, nine retail companies filed for bankruptcy, equal to the total for all of 2016. What’s interesting to me about this is while many retailers are struggling, Amazon is actually looking to open more physical retail stores. I think this points to the fact that physical retail will always have a presence, especially in key locations that can be profitable. However, we are significantly over-retailed in this country. Amazon can start from a position of strength and add key locations and avoid less lucrative markets. It’s going to be a fascinating few years as the retail space equalizes with demand. It will also be interesting to watch what this means for commercial real estate. There are millions of square feet of retail space across the country that are simply not needed. Will other businesses step and use this space or will we be left with numerous empty stores? Read More

Oil increased 5.4% this week, closing at $50.73/barrel. This was the first weekly close above $50 in four weeks. The yield on the 10-yr Treasury decreased slightly, closing at 2.40%, from 2.41% a week ago. The average rate on a 30-yr mortgage declined again, moving to 4.14% from 4.23% last week.

Close Weekly YTD
Dow Jones 20,663.22 0.3% 4.6%
S&P 500 2,362.72 0.8% 5.5%
Oil 50.73 5.4% (5.9%)
10-yr Treasury (∆ in bps) 2.40 (2) (5)

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3/24/17 – Stocks’ Worst Week Since Election

  • Stocks suffer worst week since before election
  • Tuesday broke a 110 day streak without a 1% decline
  • Republicans unable to pass healthcare reform

Markets experienced their largest decline of 2017 this week. Most of the weakness occurred on Tuesday as financial stocks sold off sharply. For the week, the Dow declined 1.5% while the S&P 500 was down 1.4%.

On Tuesday, the Dow and S&P 500 broke an impressive streak. The indices had gone 110 straight trading days without a daily loss of greater than 1%. This was longest such streak since the early 90s. It’s really been a surprisingly calm few months in the market. By contrast, through March 24th last year, which is approximately 75 trading days, the market had 14 days where the indices declined by more than 1%. Read More

A major topic over the last few days has been the Republican’s healthcare bill and what that means for future legislation. The current bill doesn’t seem too popular with anyone and it was reported just before 4pm that Republicans were pulling the bill and no vote would take place. Many have argued this vote was important because it would demonstrate the Administration’s ability to pass legislation. The thought being, if Trump can’t get the healthcare bill passed, will he be able to get tax reform passed? I have a hard time understanding that thought process given the nature of both issues. Healthcare is terribly complex and there were numerous factions with differing views on the future of healthcare, especially within the Republican party. On tax reform, especially corporate tax reform, it appears to me there is much more support for doing something, even bipartisan support. Of course, every politician will have different goals, but it seems many are directionally aligned, so it seems far less likely there will be a number of Republicans voting ‘No’ on a potential tax reform bill. Read More

Oil declined this week, decreasing 1.3% to close at $48.14/barrel. The yield on the 10-yr Treasury decreased, closing at 2.41%, from 2.55% a week ago. The average rate on a 30-yr mortgage retreated, moving to 4.23% from 4.30% last week.

Close Weekly YTD
Dow Jones 20,596.72 (1.5%) 4.2%
S&P 500 2,343.98 (1.4%) 4.7%
Oil 48.14 (1.3%) (10.7%)
10-yr Treasury (∆ in bps) 2.41 (9) (3)

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3/17/17 – Fed Raises Interest Rates, Stocks Up Slightly

Stocks Increase Slightly, Fed Raises Interest Rates

  • Stocks rebound to a small gain this week
  • As expected, the Fed increased the fed funds rate 0.25%
  • North Korea in the news

After suffering their worst week of the year last week, both indices rebounded and increased slightly this week. The Dow gained 0.1% while the S&P 500 increased 0.2%.

The Federal Open Market Committee met this week and agreed to raise interest rates 0.25%. This was widely expected, but stocks managed to rally immediately following the announcement. The rally was broad-based with even utilities increasing. Utility stocks, given their high dividend yields, often sell-off when interest rates rise as the relative attraction of the dividend decreases. This suggests to me the market fully expected an increase and took the increase as a signal of a strengthening economy. Additionally, the comments from Janet Yellen suggested that two additional increases were likely this year. Some had speculated three more could happen this year and I think that reassured dividend investors that rates wouldn’t more too much higher in the near term. Read More

The US announced what appears to be a fairly significant change in policy to dealing with North Korea, although the news didn’t seem to impact markets today. North Korea has nuclear weapons, but doesn’t yet have the missile capability to reach the west coast of the United States. They have expressed a desire to do that and they repeatedly test missile launches in the Pacific Ocean. Last week, North Korea launched four ballistic missiles towards Japan, saying it was a test for attacking US forces in Japan. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said this week that all options would be on the table if North Korea increases its threat, including a preemptive military strike. I don’t know what the long-range plan/solution is to North Korea, but I always assume these dictators want to talk tough, but also want to remain in power, which hopefully keeps the status quo going forward. There’s been very little geopolitical news impacting markets lately, but this is a situation to monitor. Read More

Oil bounced back this week, increasing 0.7% to close at $48.79/barrel. The yield on the 10-yr Treasury decreased, closing at 2.50%, from 2.58% a week ago. The average rate on a 30-yr mortgage extended a 2017 high, moving to 4.30% from 4.21% last week.

Close Weekly YTD
Dow Jones 20,914.62 0.1% 5.8%
S&P 500 2,378.25 0.2% 6.2%
Oil 48.79 0.7% (9.5%)
10-yr Treasury (∆ in bps) 2.50 (7) 5

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3/10/17 – Stocks Down, Jobs, Fed & Debt Ceiling in the News

Stocks Break Winning Streak, Jobs, Fed & Debt Ceiling in the News

  • Stocks suffer their worst week of 2017
  • February jobs reports stronger than expected
  • The Fed meets next week, interest rate increase likely
  • Debt ceiling back in the news

Both indices endured their worst week of 2017. The Dow broke a 5-week winning streak, while the S&P 500 was down for the first time in seven weeks. On the week, the Dow and S&P 500 declined 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released a very strong February jobs report this morning. The economy added 235k net new jobs last month, well above the consensus estimate of 190k. This follows a strong ADP jobs report on Wednesday and suggests businesses are optimistic about the direction of the economy. Over 160 million Americans are working, the most in history. The unemployment rate declined to 4.7%. As I’ve mentioned many times over the last few years though, the unemployment overstates the strength of the labor market in my opinion. People who haven’t actively looked for a job in the prior four weeks are not included in the labor force. This excludes millions of Americans who are long-term unemployed and have given up looking for work. There are still over 94 million working age American not working. I think what we’re seeing is a nice sign of optimism from corporate America, but also a continuation of many of the same trends we’ve seen for years. Jobs are growing at a nice rate, but many people are still on the sidelines in need of a stronger labor market. Read More

The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meets next week and it is widely expected they will decide to increase the Fed Funds rate by 0.25%, or 25 basis points. The strong jobs report today essentially finalized the decision and the market seems to be happy with it. In the 2012-2015 period, every time investors thought the Fed would raise rates, stocks would sell-off and vice versa. Today, most investors seem ready to welcome higher rates. I think this is because people recognize the economy is in a much better position today that it was a few years ago. My expectation for the year is we’ll see three, and potentially four rate increases. This could be a nice boost to savers as interest rates on savings accounts and fixed income investments increase. It could cause some volatility and unpredictability in the bond market in the short-term, but overall I believe this is a positive for investors. I know I would like to see higher returns in the fixed income portion of portfolios.

Eighteen months ago, Congress voted to suspend the debt ceiling. This happened a few times during the Obama years, where the ceiling was suspended instead of being raised. It’s sort of a semantic issue, since both options allow the government to continue borrowing money. The current suspension expires on March 16th so something needs to happen soon. I’ve argued over the years that the debt ceiling is pointless because we’ve raised it ~80 times over the years. Politically, it will entertaining to watch the situation evolve with one-party in control of Congress and the White House. Practically, we have to either suspend the debt ceiling again or raise it to some amount that will get us through another couple years. In spite of all the talk about fiscal discipline, the US has shown very little over the years, regardless of which party was in control. Read More

Oil was down sharply this week, decreasing 9.0% to close at $48.43/barrel. This is the first time since November that oil has finished a week below $50/barrel. The yield on the 10-yr Treasury increased, closing at 2.58%, from 2.49% a week ago. The average rate on a 30-yr mortgage reached a 2017 high of 4.21% from 4.10% last week.

Close Weekly YTD
Dow Jones 20,902.98 (0.5%) 5.8%
S&P 500 2,372.60 (0.4%) 6.0%
Oil 48.43 (9.0%) (10.1%)
10-yr Treasury (∆ in bps) 2.58 9 13

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