Market Recap – January 6, 2017

Markets Start Strong in 2017

  • Stocks move higher in first week of the year
  • Jobs report below expectations, but still strong
  • Corporate earnings start next week

Happy New Year! Stocks started the year off right with both the Dow and the S&P 500 increasing. The Dow still hasn’t touched 20,000 although it came within 0.37 points this afternoon. On the week, the Dow was up 1.0% while the S&P 500 increased 1.7%.

The December jobs report came out this morning slightly below estimates. The economy added a net 156k new jobs last month and the unemployment rate increased to 4.7%. While the consensus estimate was for 183k new jobs, I think this is a positive report. Wage growth was the best since 2009 and continued the steady increase in wage growth over the last few months. Consumer spending is roughly two-thirds of the US economy, so seeing wage growth improve is a good signal for future economic activity. Wage growth can be a source of future inflation as additional dollars chase products and services. However at the current 2.9% annualized rate, I don’t view inflation as a near-term threat. On the year, the economy added 2.2 million jobs. While a good year, job creation was down fro 2.7 and 3.0 million in 2015 and 2014, respectively. Read More

Next week we kick-off the latest round of corporate earnings. Many of the big financial firms report later in the week and the weeks following will see most major US companies report. Earnings are always important to watch, but these reports could offer significant clues to the economy and the stock market. Since the election, financial and energy firms have done very well and these reports give managements an opportunity to explain whether the underlying activity warranted the moves. For other sectors, we’ll get to hear how companies are preparing for the new administration and what they expect going forward.

Oil declined this week, closing down 0.4%% to $53.65/barrel. The yield on the 10-yr Treasury declined again this week, closing at 2.42% from 2.45% a week ago. The average rate on a 30-yr mortgage declined for the first time since the election, moving to 4.20% from 4.32% a week ago.

Close Weekly YTD
Dow Jones 19,963.80 1.0% 1.0%
S&P 500 2,276.98 1.7% 1.7%
Oil 53.65 (0.4%) (0.4%)
10-yr Treasury (∆ in bps) 2.42 (3) (3)

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Market Recap – December 30, 2016

Quiet Week Wraps up Trading for 2016

Happy New Year! I hope you all enjoy ringing in 2017 this weekend. Markets are closed Monday for the holiday.

Stocks retreated in the final week of the year. The Dow declined 0.9% while the S&P 500 declined 1.1% in a slow, low-volume week. This has been quite the year. We started out with a massive sell-off. Both indices were down ~10% in the first 4-6 weeks of the year. After rebounding from early volatility markets moved sideways until after the election when financials and energy fueled a market rally. We’ve seen sharp divergence between sectors this year as well. Healthcare was down over 5% on the year while Consumer Staples was up ~3%. Financials and Energy led the way and were up over 20%.

As we head into 2017 we will see whether the run up in financial and energy stocks was warranted by actual policy. Financials have rallied on the hope that large sections of Dodd-Frank will be repealed. That might help banks’ short-term profits, but is it good for long-term systemic stability? Will these regulations even be eliminated? There’s a lot of uncertainty in the sector and it’s unclear whether this recent optimism will continue when actual policies start coming out.

Energy is a similar story. So far it appears OPEC is willing to keep supply constrained. Historically this hasn’t happened, which could put downward pressure on oil prices. Additionally, there’s significant production that can start coming back online if oil exceeds $60/barrel. Over time, energy hasn’t been a great sector to own. It has sharp ups and down as oil prices move, but it’s a capital intensive industry that struggles with excess supply.

Healthcare will be an interesting sector this year as well. Regardless of the election, it appears there will be increased pricing pressure for many drugs, medical devices and other services. However, the market is large and growing as Baby Boomers continue increasing their use of pharmaceuticals and other health services. The sector looks undervalued at this point and could set up nicely to do well in 2017.

Dividend stocks have sold-off the last few months as interest rates increased. The Fed increased rates earlier this month and I think we’re looking at two additional increases next year. This could pressure dividend stocks next year as the gap between interest rates and dividend yield declines. However, dividend-paying stocks have historically been good performers, even in environments with significantly higher interest rates than the current one. While the ride has been bumpy the last few months, I continue to like high-quality dividend stocks as long-term holdings. A few months of under-performance doesn’t change my thinking on companies that have thrived over many years.

Oil moved higher this week, closing up 1.6%% to $53.89/barrel. Oil increased over 45% this year. The yield on the 10-yr Treasury pulled back again this week, closing at 2.45% from 2.54% a week ago. A volatile year in Treasuries finished with the 10-yr 18 basis points (0.18%) higher than year-end 2015. The average rate on a 30-yr mortgage continued higher to 4.32% from 4.30% a week ago. Mortgage rates started the year at 4.01% and while they reached historic lows during the year, they remain very low relative to historical averages.

Close Weekly YTD
Dow Jones 19,762.60 (0.9%) 13.4%
S&P 500 2,238.83 (1.1%) 9.5%
Oil 53.89 1.6% 45.4%
10-yr Treasury (∆ in bps) 2.45 (10) 18

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Market Recap – December 23, 2016

  • The Dow and S&P 500 continued higher this week
  • Strong 3rd quarter US economic growth
  • Financial tips heading into year-end

Stocks continued higher in the last full week of trading in 2016. The Dow increased 0.5% and has now increased for seven straight weeks. The S&P 500 rebounded to increase 0.3% this week. Markets are closed Monday in observance of the Christmas holiday and the rest of the week will likely be a slow trading week.

US economic growth in the 3rd quarter was revised higher to a 3.5% annualized rate. The prior estimate was 3.2%. This is the best quarter for economic growth since the 3rd quarter in 2014. The 3rd quarter is typically a strong quarter as business inventories increase heading into the holiday shopping season. Like past strong quarters, this is expected to be an outlier. The current consensus estimate for 4th quarter growth is just 2.2%. Read More

As we approach year-end, here’s a few tips or things to consider from a financial standpoint:

  1. Donate to Charity – If you’ve thought about donating to your favorite charity, now is a great time. Make your donation before 12/31 and get a 2016 tax deduction.
  2. Check Account Beneficiaries – This is a good time to check your beneficiary information and confirm that all your investment and bank accounts have updated information. This is a simple process that can save your heirs a headache if something happens to you.
  3. Revisit Life Insurance Needs – Is your current insurance appropriate for your needs. I think Term Life Insurance is all most people need, but as time goes on you might find you need more or less than you currently have. A good way to start is to consider future living expenses as well as the timing and amounts of large future expenses your family will have. Once you have those figures, you can determine how much insurance you need and what term lengths are most appropriate.
  4. Required Minimum Distribution (RMD) – If you turned 70 1/2 this year, make sure you understand whether you need to take an RMD in 2016. If you are already taking RMD from your IRA accounts, make sure you take the 2016 amount by year-end. If you have questions on this, please let me know.
  5. Increase your Savings Rate – This is a great time to increase your 401k contribution rate or max out your (Roth) IRA. For IRA contributions, you have until April 15th to make a contribution for your 2016 taxes. Increasing your savings rate today can pay long-term dividends in retirement.

Oil moved higher this week, closing up 2.0% to $53.06/barrel. The yield on the 10-yr Treasury pulled back this week, closing at 2.54% from 2.60% a week ago. The average rate on a 30-yr mortgage continued higher to 4.30% from 4.16% a week ago. Mortgage rates are at their level since April 2014.

I hope you all have a Merry Christmas!

Close Weekly YTD
Dow Jones 19,933.81 0.5% 14.4%
S&P 500 2,263.79 0.3% 10.8%
Oil 53.06 2.0% 43.2%
10-yr Treasury (∆ in bps) 2.54 (5) 27

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Market Recap – December 16, 2016

Stocks Mixed, Fed Raises Interest Rates

  • The Dow continued higher while the S&P 500 declined slightly this week
  • The Dow didn’t reach 20,000 this week as many had predicted
  • Fed raises interest rates 0.25%

In a relatively quiet week, in spite of the Fed news, the Dow continued higher while the S&P 500 pulled back slightly. The Dow has now increased six straight weeks. On the week the Dow gained 0.4% while the S&P 500 declined 0.1%.

As expected the Fed raised the Fed Funds rates by 25 basis points at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. The new target range for the Fed Funds rate is 0.50 – 0.75%. This is the first rate increase since last December and only the second in the last ten years. Last December, the Fed said it expected four rate increases during 2016. For various reasons, they decided against raising rates in the first half of this year. After June I don’t think the Fed wanted to appear to be doing anything to influence the election. If this wasn’t an election year we likely would have seen this move a few months ago. The Committee said it expects three rate increases next year. I am not sure we will see that I do think the Fed will raise at least one more time in the first half of 2017. Read More

Retail stocks declined sharply today after JP Morgan downgraded Nordstrom’s stock this morning. Nordstrom lead the decline, falling almost 9%, but companies such as Kohl’s, JC Penney, Macy’s and the Gap all declined more than 6%. While the report dealt only with Nordstrom, many investors look at weakness in Nordstrom as another piece of evidence in the long-term decline of brick and mortar retail shops. All of these companies are aggressively trying to build their online businesses, but so far investors aren’t convinced. We are in the midst of the important holiday-shopping season and the next two weeks will be critical for all these companies. Read More

Oil moved slightly higher this week, closing up 1.1% to $52.03/barrel. The yield on the 10-yr Treasury moved higher, closing at 2.60% from 2.47% a week ago. The 10-yr is up a full percentage point since the end of the September, a very large move for interest rates in that time frame. The average rate on a 30-yr mortgage continued higher to 4.16% from 4.13% a week ago.

Close Weekly YTD
Dow Jones 19,843.41 0.4% 13.9%
S&P 500 2,258.07 (0.1%) 10.5%
Oil 52.03 1.1% 40.4%
10-yr Treasury (∆ in bps) 2.60 13 33

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Market Recap – December 9, 2016

Stocks Continue Higher, Pet Rock Making a Comeback?

  • Broad-based rally drives stocks higher this week
  • The Dow is approaching 20,000 in another record close
  • Italy referendum fails, Prime Minister resigns
  • Nordstrom attempting to modernize the Pet Rock

For the first time since the election, every sector rallied in the stock market for the week. Financials continued to lead the way, while Healthcare lagged, but every sector was up in a strong week. The Dow, S&P 500 and NASDAQ each increased all five trading days this week. This is the first time in five years that has happened. For the week the Dow and S&P 500 each increased 3.1%.

Last week I wrote about the Italian referendum. The people voted ‘No,’ meaning the Senate’s power won’t be reduced, making it nearly impossible to pass the economic reforms of now former Prime Minister, Matteo Renzi. True to his word. Mr. Renzi officially resigned on Wednesday. The populist party has already increased calls for Italy to leave the EU, although we are still many steps from that potential outcome. The markets had predicted a ‘No’ vote, but the lack of market impact of this issue surprised some investors. This continues a trend we’ve seen with Brexit and Trump where markets responded much more favorably to the populist outcomes than was predicted ahead of time. Read More

This holiday season Nordstrom is selling a rock in a leather bag for $85. When reports started coming out, most assumed this was fake, but the company confirmed they are selling them and apparently they are selling quite well. It’s a rock in a small leather bag. Many talk about the marketing genius it took for the Pet Rock to make a $1 million in the 70s, but this might surpass the Pet Rock on that front. What a great country when a major retailer can sell a rock in a leather bag for $85. Read More

Oil retreated slightly this week, closing down 0.4% to $51.45/barrel. The yield on the 10-yr Treasury moved higher, closing at 2.47% from 2.40% a week ago. The average rate on a 30-yr mortgage continued higher to 4.13% from 4.08% a week ago.

Close Weekly YTD
Dow Jones 19,756.85 3.1% 13.4%
S&P 500 2,259.53 3.1% 10.5%
Oil 51.45 (0.4%) 38.8%
10-yr Treasury (∆ in bps) 2.47 7 20

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Market Recap – December 2, 2016

November Jobs Report Steady, Stocks Mixed

  • Stocks finished mixed this week with the Dow increasing and S&P 500 declining
  • November jobs report showed 178k new jobs, in-line with expectations

The Dow squeaked out a small gain this week, increasing 0.1%. This was the 4th consecutive week of gains for the Dow. The S&P 500, however, declined 1.0% this week. The S&P 500 is a much broader index while the Dow is comprised of only 30 of the largest US companies. We continue to see sharp divergences between sectors. Utilities, Technology, Healthcare and Consumer Staples continue to lag while Financials and Energy lead the way this week.

The November jobs report showed 178k net new jobs were created last month. This was right in-line with the 175k estimate. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.6% and wage growth remained at a greater than 2% annualized rate. We continue to have lingering problems with long-term unemployed people that have given up looking for work. Overall though, I think this report continues the trend we’ve seen for several years. Reasonably healthy job creation, wages growing above the inflation rate and the unemployment rate artificially low due to people giving up on seeking work. One of the interesting trends we’ve seen over the last year is that average weekly wage growths trails average hourly wage growth. That means that as people are being paid more per hour, their average hours worked is slightly decreasing. Read More

Italians head to the polls Sunday for a referendum on Constitutional changes that would reduce the size and power of their Senate. The Prime Minister, Matteo Renzi, proposed the changes to help him pass a massive economic reform package that was going nowhere in the current government. It’s an interesting issue in that a ‘yes’ vote will consolidate power within the government. I would think this would normally be viewed as a bad thing, but Mr. Renzi has pledge to resign if a ‘No’ vote prevails. Many believe a populist movement in favor of Italy leaving the EU could win if Mr. Renzi resigns. So, many view the referendum as a de facto vote on whether the people of Italy want to remain in the EU.

Italy doesn’t allow polling in the two weeks prior to an election, but the latest polls showed ‘No’ holding an 8-point lead with many undecided voters. We’re several steps away from any vote on Italy potentially leaving the EU (some are dubbing this Italeave), but this could be a market moving event next week and in the months ahead. Italy is still reeling from the financial crisis. The economy is almost 9% smaller than it was in 2008 and unemployment tops 11%. The economic malaise is leading to voter disillusionment with the current system.  Read More

Oil moved sharply higher this week, increasing 12.4% to close at  $51.66/barrel. The move came on the heels of the OPEC agreement to cut production. I wrote a few months ago about the OPEC deal and thought any production cut would likely be short-lived. Every country wants higher prices, but as prices go up they have incentives to over-produce to increase their own oil revenue. OPEC members have historically always produced more than their allotted amounts. It will be interesting to see whether this production cut provides the price support it seeks to accomplish.

The yield on the 10-yr Treasury move slightly higher, closing at 2.40% from 2.36% a week ago. The average rate on a 30-yr mortgage continued higher to 4.08% from 4.03% a week ago.

Close Weekly YTD
Dow Jones 19,170.42 0.1% 10.0%
S&P 500 2,191.95 (1.0%) 7.2%
Oil 51.66 12.4% 39.4%
10-yr Treasury (∆ in bps) 2.40 4 13

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Market Recap – November 25, 2016

Stocks Continue Higher in Holiday-Shortened Week

  • Stocks finish 3rd consecutive up week at all-time highs
  • Holiday shopping season kicked-off today

I hope you all had a Happy Thanksgiving and enjoyed spending time with family and friends.

Stocks moved higher this week, with financials continuing to lead the way. Since the election the financial sector is up over 12% while the utility and consumer staple sectors are down 3-4%. This is a near unprecedented divergence between sectors at opposite ends of the risk spectrum in such a short period of time. For the week the Dow gained 1.5% while the S&P 500 increased 1.4%.

Equity markets continue to show optimism about the Trump administration. The consensus view is that corporate tax reform and infrastructure spending will boost the economy in the coming years. The anticipation of higher future growth is also pulling money out of fixed income and into the equity markets. A lot of the excitement feels overdone as it’s not clear to me what exactly the Trump administration will attempt in the early part of 2017. However, for now the markets are believing the optimism.

The holiday shopping season officially began today with Black Friday. While mall traffic seemed strong today, the real key this year might be how much mobile shopping is done. An estimated $770 million of online sales happened yesterday from phones. Mobile shopping is becoming a critical component for retailers such as Walmart, Target and Macy’s as more shoppers prefer avoiding the crowds and placing orders from the comfort of their living rooms. In an attempt to attract more mobile shoppers, many retailers this year are offering specials just for shoppers using mobile devices. With the reasonably strong jobs market the last few months and growing wages, this holiday shopping season stands to be a good one for retailers. Read More

Oil moved slightly higher this week, increasing 0.8%, closing at $45.96/barrel. The yield on the 10-yr Treasury was essentially unchanged, closing again at 2.36%. The average rate on a 30-yr mortgage increased sharply to 4.03% from 3.94% a week ago. This is the highest average mortgage rate since July 2015.

Close Weekly YTD
Dow Jones 19,152.14 1.5% 9.9%
S&P 500 2,213.35 1.4% 8.3%
Oil 45.96 0.8% 24.0%
10-yr Treasury (∆ in bps) 2.36 0 9

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Market Recap – November 18, 2016

Stocks Continue Higher, Still A Lot of Uncertainty on Trump’s Economic Plans

  • Both indices continued higher this week
  • Trump hasn’t released much info on his economic plans
  • Interest rates sharply higher again

Stocks moved higher this week, but we continue to see a broad divergence between sectors. For the week the Dow gained 0.1% while the S&P 500 increased 0.8%. The bond market continued it’s sell-off and interest rates across the board increased.

The financial sector has driven the market higher since the election. The sector as a whole is up almost 11% in the last week-plus. We haven’t owned financials in years and I remain skeptical on the sector. The likelihood that portions of Dodd-Frank are rolled-back in a Trump administration is convincing investors that bank profits will increase going forward. The reason we haven’t owned financials is because I don’t trust the assets the banks own. Banks are different than every other type of company given how much debt they have. Banks borrow money, either through consumer deposits or actual borrowings and buy assets. These assets include business and personal loans, mortgage securities and various other lending products or investments. Because banks have so much debt, small moves in the value of its assets can cause sharp moves in the value of the stock. While I’m disappointed we haven’t realized the gains from the financial sector in the last week, I still think there is reason to be skeptical of banks and I’m okay missing some of this upside to avoid the potential downside.

Interest rates continue to move higher across the board. The 10-year Treasury rate increased to 2.36% this week from 2.15% last week. These are very large moves in a short period of time. Since the election, bond mutual funds have seen over $9 billion of outflows while stock funds have seen almost $25 billion in inflows. This is one of the largest weekly moves in history of money moving from bonds to stocks. The move in interest rates has also hurt dividend stocks. Our dividend stocks have traded down as investors demanded a higher dividend yield as interest rates rise. This has been a rough few weeks for dividend stocks, but I continue to believe in them long-term. Over time I believe quality dividend stocks, that regularly increase dividend payments, will continue to be good performers.

It’s only been a week since the election, but we still don’t have a great sense for what Trump’s economic policies will look like. His campaign talk was really difficult to follow as to what was important to him. Trade was a major issue, but I can’t believe Trump really wants to engage in trade wars. There are downsides to globalization, but to paraphrase GE CEO Jeffrey Immelt from the other day, “trade is power for a President and I can’t imagine Trump will want to give up that negotiating power.” Markets have rallied on what it views as potential Trump policies, but the reality is we won’t know until January when actual proposals and bills start coming out. This is an area I’m monitoring to see if potential changes should impact our portfolio composition.

Oil moved higher this week, increasing 5.5%, closing at $45.58/barrel. The yield on the 10-yr Treasury moved sharply higher, closing at 2.36% from 2.15% a week ago. The average rate on a 30-yr mortgage increased sharply to 3.94% from 3.57% a week ago.

Close Weekly YTD
Dow Jones 18,867.93 0.1% 8.3%
S&P 500 2,181.90 0.8% 6.7%
Oil 45.58 5.5% 23.0%
10-yr Treasury (∆ in bps) 2.36 21 9

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Market Recap – November 11, 2016

Election Results Dominate Trading, Happy Veterans’ Day

  • Dow & S&P 500 up sharply post Trump victory
  • Divergence between sectors was extreme
  • Interest rates sharply higher

Happy Veterans’ Day! I offer a sincere thank you to all who served our great nation. Politicians come and go, but we’ve remained a free country for ~240 years due to the efforts of the US Armed Forces. Thank you.

The election surprise has dominated headlines this week. Essentially no one predicted this outcome and while many predicted the markets would sell-off in a Trump victory, the opposite has happened. The Dow increased 5.4% this week while the broader market S&P 500 was up 3.8%.

While the broader indices moved sharply higher, there was a great deal of volatility among the companies and industries that make up the indices. The Financial sector has been the biggest winner by far this week. Many investors believe there is a high likelihood that large portions of the Dodd-Frank financial regulatory bill could be rolled back. One of the features of Dodd-Frank was the latitude given to regulators. This was done since Congress generally lacks the depth of financial understanding to effectively regulate global institutions. However, because of that, as administrations change, the rules can change without requiring Congressional approval. The financial sector was up over 8% this week. At the other end were utilities and consumer staple companies. These companies aren’t generally high-growth names, but rather offer investors stability and an attractive dividend. Utilities were down over 6% since the election, while consumer staples were down over 4%.

Based on what is happening in the Treasury market, it appears the market is expecting higher economic growth and inflation in a Trump economy. The 10-year Treasury was at 1.75% on Tuesday, but spiked to 2.15% at today’s close. This is a very large move for Treasuries in a short time period and appears driven by an assumption of higher nominal economic growth. As interest rates increased sharply, top dividend-paying stocks sold-off this week. Names such as Southern Company, Phillip Morris Int’l, Altria and others declined sharply as investors demanded a higher dividend yield given the increase in interest rates. I think the move in interest rates is overly optimistic, although it’s important to remember that we’re still close to historical lows in Treasury rates.

Oil continued moving lower this week, declining 2.1% this week, closing at $43.21/barrel. President-Elect Trump has promised to free up domestic energy production, meaning potentially increased supplies. Prices will ultimately dictate how much oil we produce, but the option creates a large shadow supply that will always be available if prices rises. This can potentially put a ceiling on prices unless demand increases. The yield on the 10-yr Treasury moved sharply higher, closing at 2.15% from 1.78% a week ago. The average rate on a 30-yr mortgage increased to 3.57% from 3.54% a week ago. Based on the move in Treasury rates, I would expect mortgage rates to increase more next week. If you are looking to refinance your home, it might make sense to see what rate you can lock in early next week. Interestingly, gold sold off over 6% this week. This is another market prediction most economists got wrong as pundits and analysts misread how the market would react to a Trump Presidency.

Close Weekly YTD
Dow Jones 18,847.66 5.4% 8.2%
S&P 500 2,164.45 3.8% 5.9%
Oil 43.21 (2.1%) 16.6%
10-yr Treasury (∆ in bps) 2.15 37 (12)

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Market Recap – November 4, 2016

Stocks Down, Jobs Report Mixed and Election Looms

  • S&P 500 down for 9th consecutive day
  • Mixed jobs reports shows higher wages, but below expectation job creation
  • Americans go to the polls Tuesday to elect the 45th President

Stocks finished down on the week and the S&P 500 was down for the 9th straight trading session. This is the longest down steak for the S&P 500 since 1980. While a historic streak, the index is down just over 2% over that period. For the week, the Dow and S&P 500 were down 1.5% and 1.9%, respectively. On the year, the Dow is now up 2.7% while the S&P 500 is up 2.0%.

The October jobs report was a mixed bag this morning and should provide ample opportunity for both political parties to make their final cases. The economy added 161k net new jobs in the month, below the 175k expectation, but the 73rd consecutive month of job growth. Anything over 100k per month more than covers population growth. Better than the headline number was wage growth. Wages grew at an annualized rate of 2.8%, which is the best in seven years. We’ve seen improving wages over the last few months and this is another good sign for future consumer spending. However, it wasn’t all good news. Over 400k people left the workforce last month and the labor force participation rate continued moving lower. The situation seems to be pretty good if you’re out of work in the near-term, but there remains a large pool of long-term unemployed people whose ability to return to the labor force continues to erode as time goes by and their skills aren’t matched for comparable jobs anymore. From my perspective, this was a neutral to positive report. Read More

The election appears to be tightening as Americans head to the polls on Tuesday. I think some of the sell-off we’ve seen lately is related to uncertainty about the outcome. Ten days ago, I think the market expected a Clinton victory. As I wrote a few weeks ago, markets always prefer stability in the short-term and Clinton’s policies are very similar to Obama’s. As Trump continues to gain in the polls, the market has sold-off on increased uncertainty about what exactly his economic policies will be. Hopefully this issue will be wrapped up Tuesday night and we can move forward. If you enjoy this, Real Clear Politics has a great map where you can run various scenarios on a state-by-state basis.

Oil decreased sharply this week, declining 9.5% this week, closing at $44.12/barrel. The OPEC deal the helped fuel the oil rally over the last month doesn’t seem to be coming together like initial reports. I wrote about this at the time, OPEC always struggles with cutting production because the member countries all want production cut, but none want to cut their own production. The yield on the 10-yr Treasury moved lower, closing at 1.78% from 1.85% a week ago. The average rate on a 30-yr mortgage increased to 3.54% from 3.47% a week ago.

Close Weekly YTD
Dow Jones 17,888.28 (1.5%) 2.7%
S&P 500 2,085.18 (1.9%) 2.0%
Oil 44.12 (9.5%) 19.1%
10-yr Treasury (∆ in bps) 1.78 (7) (49)

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